ONE Triples Its Full-Year Profit Forecast to US$2 Billion - and the Numbers Explain Why Rates Matter More Than Volume

What did ONE actually report?

On November 4, Ocean Network Express published results for the second quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, covering July 1 to September 30. Revenue came in at US$6.27 billion, up 40.8 percent year on year. EBITDA reached US$1.99 billion, up 125.7 percent, EBIT US$1.36 billion, up 381.6 percent, and net profit US$1.318 billion against US$285 million a year earlier - a 362.5 percent increase. Margins moved with it: the EBITDA margin went from 19.7 to 31.7 percent, the EBIT margin from 6.3 to 21.6 percent.

Volume or price?

Price, almost entirely. Lifted volume was 3.396 million TEU, up 2.2 percent. Revenue per TEU was US$1,709, up 39.5 percent. For the six months to September, revenue was US$10.81 billion and net profit US$1.348 billion - which means the July-September quarter produced almost all of the half-year profit. Anyone still assuming this market is being driven by cargo demand should look at those two growth rates side by side.

So where is the demand coming from?

The trans-Pacific. ONE credits a historically low US inventory-to-sales ratio, plus imports of data-centre hardware and industrial materials. Asian port congestion and Panama Canal restrictions tightened available capacity on top of that. Asia-Europe went the other way: volumes were steady, the pre-Golden Week rush never arrived, additional capacity came in, and the faster return of services through Suez eased the supply-demand balance, leaving rates slightly lower.

What is baked into the guidance?

The full-year net profit forecast moved from US$900 million to US$2.0 billion, implying revenue of about US$21 billion, EBITDA of US$4.7 billion and EBIT of US$2.2 billion. Two assumptions sit underneath: that the Strait of Hormuz situation persists through the fiscal year, and that Red Sea transits normalise gradually. ONE expects spot rates to soften seasonally in the second half but to stay above its earlier forecast, with a modest pre-Chinese New Year bump.

What should a shipper do with this?

Treat the two trades differently. Trans-Pacific pricing has a genuine demand story behind it, so do not expect large discounts in the near term, but watch whether November GRIs actually stick - this year has repeatedly produced announced increases that settled well below the headline. Asia-Europe is where the leverage has shifted: capacity is returning, the seasonal lull is here, and contract talks look better than they did three months ago. The variable that matters most is Red Sea transit, because every quarter of faster normalisation releases another block of Asia-Europe capacity and pushes the price floor lower. Lane options to the US are on our US route page.

Source: Based on ONE's Q2 FY2026 results announcement of November 4, 2026, reporting by Hangyunjie and Zuihangyun, and Nippon Yusen Kaisha's FY2026 second-quarter results published November 5.