The Shipbuilding Orderbook Is Back at Its 2008 Peak - and Container Ships Are the Engine

BIMCO's chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen published a set of numbers in early November that belong in any shipper's 2027 planning file. The essentials, in order:

• The orderbook: 203.2 million CGT of tonnage on order at global yards as of September 1, up 13 percent year on year, just below the record 210.4 million CGT set in May 2026 but above the previous 2008 high of 195.4 million CGT.
• Who holds it: Chinese yards took 74 percent of all tonnage contracted over the past 12 months and hold 64 percent of the orderbook, against 19 percent for South Korea and 6 percent for Japan. The Chinese share exceeds 72 percent in each of the six major cargo sectors.
• The container ship angle: Chinese yards hold 81 percent of the container ship orderbook. Containerships make up 30 percent of the global orderbook and 68 percent of the past year's order growth - this expansion is a container story above all.
• The delivery wall: combined deliveries from China, South Korea and Japan peaked at 40.1 million CGT in 2025. Scheduled deliveries rise to 55.9 million CGT in 2027 and 60 million CGT in 2028; Chinese yards alone are due to deliver a record 44 million CGT in 2028, nearly double their 2025 output of 22.7 million CGT.
• The fleet math: the container fleet stands around 34 million TEU with an orderbook above 14 million TEU, some 42 percent of existing capacity. BIMCO expects capacity growth of 4.6 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027, while container cargo volume grew 5.1 percent in the first seven months of 2026.

The demand side holds the counterweight. BIMCO estimates that if Suez routing returns to normal in 2027, ship demand growth could come in about 5 percent below current forecasts, because shorter voyages release capacity without any newbuilding at all. Two supply shocks - the delivery wave and the Red Sea normalization - could therefore land in the same year.

For shippers, the conclusion is a split market. Asia-Europe faces concentrated deliveries, a returning routing and a seasonal lull all at once, which makes it the natural place to push harder in 2027 contract negotiations. Trans-Pacific demand has genuine support behind it and will not necessarily fall in step. The orderbook is the certainty; the Red Sea is the variable. Price the two trades separately. Routing options to Europe are on our Europe route page.

Source: Based on BIMCO market analysis (Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst) and reports by Marine & Industrial Report and 10jqka Finance.