Air Cargo Peak Season Starts Hot: China–Europe and Transpacific Rates Up 20–30% Year on Year

The air cargo market has not cooled after China's Golden Week the way it usually does. Index data for early October shows all-in spot rates from Greater China to Europe around $4.7–5.1 per kg, to North America near $6.0 per kg and to the Middle East around $3.7 per kg — some 20–30% above the same period last year. Industry participants broadly agree that this Q4 peak is starting from a markedly higher base than 2025.

Three forces pushing rates up

First, fuel. Jet fuel prices ended September nearly double their year-ago level, making the fuel surcharge the fastest-growing line on rate sheets. Second, technology cargo. AI-related equipment and new consumer-electronics launches are driving heavy charter demand and absorbing main-deck freighter capacity at tech-dense origins such as South China and Hong Kong, China. Third, ocean spillover. Unreliable Asia–Europe sailings are pushing time-critical inventory into the air, intensifying competition for space on the busiest lanes.

Space matters more than price

Markets expect further upside on Europe and North America lanes before mid-November, with some e-commerce charter routes potentially testing $7 per kg. But the more practical peak-season risk is not paying more — it is having cargo with no flight. Freighter capacity is tight, and shipments that must move by freighter (oversized, temperature-controlled, dangerous goods) face far fewer options than general cargo that can ride in passenger belly holds.

Four recommendations for peak shipping

• Lock space early: confirm general cargo 7–10 days ahead; freighter-dependent cargo two weeks or more.
• Keep alternate gateways ready: when hot airports fill up, a neighboring airport or a connecting routing usually costs only one to two extra days and can be considerably cheaper.
• Segment your inventory: isolate the volume that truly must hit a deadline and fly it; move the rest by sea or sea-air to control total cost.
• Verify the all-in rate: with fuel and peak surcharges moving fast, confirm whether quotes include fuel, security and ground handling.

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