Black Sea Wheat Loadings Collapse 78% as Attacks Spill into NATO Waters

The number did not come from a freight index, but it may matter more to food supply chains than any container rate this quarter. Black Sea wheat loadings totalled just 1.6 million tonnes in September 2026, down 77.8% from 7.3 million tonnes a year earlier and 45.6% below August — the weakest September since 2017, according to AXSMarine data reported by Splash247 on 9 October. Cumulative loadings for the first nine months reached 36.3 million tonnes, 12.2% lower year on year and the second-lowest January-to-September total in nine years.

The cause is a widening campaign against commercial shipping, and this autumn it crossed a line. Attacks spread beyond Ukrainian and Russian waters into the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria — both EU and NATO members. A Turkish-owned vessel carrying Ukrainian corn sank after a drone strike in Romania's zone, killing two seafarers. In Bulgarian waters one ship sank and a wheat carrier caught fire; eighteen crew were rescued, two seriously injured. Security consultancy Ambrey assessed Russian forces were highly likely responsible, and advised that Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default. Ukraine's infrastructure ministry counted 35 attacks on vessels in port and 22 at sea in July alone, plus 67 strikes on port facilities — against just 14 vessel attacks in all of 2025.

The workarounds cannot carry the load. Ukraine exported 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products in September, only 46% of potential, with 1.3 million tonnes moving via the Danube — 54% of the month's shipments. Agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi concedes alternative routes can handle only 45% to 50% of export capacity without the deep-water ports around Odesa. Freight on the Giurgiulesti-Constanta corridor has jumped from $15-35 per tonne to about $75, barge operators are deliberately under-loading, and up to 70 vessels have queued at the Sulina Canal. Russia is squeezed too: active loading ports have shrunk from 38 to 21, September wheat exports fell more than 40% year on year, and the shift north produced a record 1.4 million tonnes through the Baltic — about 60% of the month's total — where congestion, rail and storage are already maxed out. S&P Global's CERA has cut its Russian wheat export forecast from 42.5 million tonnes to 32.5 million.

The transmission into prices is visible. The FAO Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September, up 5.8% year on year for a third straight monthly rise; cereals climbed 17.2% on the year, wheat hit its highest since August 2023 and maize a three-year high. The International Grains Council's freight index (GOFI) rose from 138 points in early January to 187 by mid-September, a 35.5% gain, and Baltic-to-Egypt grain freight added $10 in a week to $54 per tonne. Egypt, the bellwether buyer, imported 358,925 tonnes of wheat in September — down 50% month on month and 74% year on year — with Ukraine replacing Russia as top supplier at 136,921 tonnes, while ex-warehouse prices in Cairo added 200 Egyptian pounds in a week to 17,200 per tonne. War-risk premiums have reached 2% of vessel value.

For traders and importers, the planning assumption should be persistence, not reversion. CERA's lowered Russian forecast still assumes Black Sea flows normalise by January 2027 — an optimistic premise. Buyers from Egypt to Bangladesh are already rebooking into Argentine, Australian and North American origins, which stretches voyage distances and bakes rerouting premiums into freight for longer. Anyone contracting grain, feed or food-ingredient volumes this winter would do well to keep freight clauses reopenable and to buffer arrival windows for Danube and rail legs.

Yufeng International Logistics operates dedicated Africa services covering Egypt, North and East African ports — see the Africa routes page.

Sources: Based on AXSMarine data via Splash247, S&P Global Platts reporting (Hellenic Shipping News), World Grain and FAO data.