Suez Comeback Accelerates: What 229 Returning Ships Mean for Asia-Europe Rates

The Suez Canal Authority didn't bother with subtlety this month. Chairman Ossama Rabiee gathered representatives of 20 shipping lines and agencies and issued a public invitation: come back, try a transit. The traffic numbers suggest the industry was already moving that way — and the rate implications are now too big to ignore. Four questions dominate shipper conversations this week.

How fast is the return, really?

Faster than at any point since the crisis began. October has already seen 229 vessels return to the canal — the highest monthly count on record. Xeneta data shows scheduled weekly capacity crossing the Bab el-Mandeb hit 448,273 teu on 5 October, double the level of 27 August, though still only 48% of the 930,679 teu offered in August 2023. BIMCO, citing Clarksons Research, puts average weekly Suez capacity at 753,000 teu across the first two weeks of October — the first time it has exceeded half the 2023 norm of roughly 1.46m teu. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 2.19m teu of container traffic in September, up 40% month-on-month against a 5.9m teu September 2023 baseline.

Which carriers are committed?

CMA CGM has resumed transits with two vessels above 170,000 tonnes and returned its Europe-Oceania NEMO service to Suez, with APL Columbus the first southbound sailing. The Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) switched four loops — AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 — back from the Cape. MSC restored selected east-west services in August and rerouted its westbound Indusa loop in September. Freightos said on 15 October it expects every alliance plus MSC to have some vessels in the Red Sea by end-October, while cautioning that any security relapse could reverse the trend within weeks.

What does it mean for freight rates?

Every ship back on Suez is capacity added without a single newbuild. The SCFI on 19 October showed Asia-Europe down 3.9% week-on-week even as transpacific legs firmed, and the carriers' $4,500-$4,800 per feu FAK push — effective the same day — now looks hard to hold. Xeneta's spot read has Far East-North Europe at $3,568 per feu (up 2.5% on the week) and the Mediterranean at $4,165, while US East Coast rates sit at more than three times the North Europe level, a gap Xeneta calls unsustainable. Jefferies estimates global container rates are up 130% since February and names the pace of the Suez return as the single most important variable to watch. Translation: the ceiling on this rate cycle is now set in Ismailia, not in the carriers' pricing offices.

What should shippers do now?

Three things. First, ask your carrier which routing your specific booking is on — the same line can run one loop via the Cape and another via Suez, a 10-14 day difference in transit, and the booking confirmation is where that gets fixed. Second, don't assume surcharges evaporate: Kerry Logistics' advisory notes emergency surcharges persist because carrier insurance costs remain elevated, and they are not withdrawn automatically when a service returns to Suez. Third, review cargo insurance with your broker — notification duties after routing changes, war and strike cover, exclusions and policy limits all deserve a fresh look while the map is being redrawn.

Yufeng International Logistics covers North Europe and Mediterranean ports with FCL, LCL, customs and delivery on its Europe routes — or email sales@ruixincargo.com for current schedules.

Sources: Based on Xeneta (via SAFETY4SEA), Asia Cargo News, BIMCO/Clarksons Research and Lloyd's List Intelligence.