US-Bound Ocean Freight Has Doubled in Six Months: Five Questions Shippers Keep Asking

Chinese financial outlet Yicai walked the trading districts of Shenzhen this week and came back with a number that made exporters wince: expedited 40-foot high-cube service from Yantian to Los Angeles/Long Beach, quoted around $12,000 before the Golden Week holiday, is now pushing $15,000 — twice what it cost six months ago. Five questions keep coming up.

How broad is the increase?

Beyond the headline rate. LCL pricing has climbed from RMB 11–12 per kilogram to around RMB 20, and sellers interviewed by Yicai on October 14 put their all-in logistics cost increase at 10% to 20%. US East Coast rates are running higher than the West Coast, and the tightness is spreading from east to west across the trade.

Why is the Drewry index falling in the same week?

Because it measures something different. The World Container Index composite slipped 2% to $4,351 per 40ft, with Shanghai–Los Angeles down 3% to $7,624. The index tracks standard spot business; the $15,000 figure is expedited and e-commerce space bought against Black Friday deadlines. The market has quietly split into two prices — one for cargo that must move now, one for cargo that can wait.

What is driving the squeeze?

Three forces, by the shippers' own account. Black Friday bookings are visibly larger than last year, and last season's conservative stocking left Amazon inventories largely cleared, so restocking and peak prep are landing on the same sailings. Rising fuel costs give carriers real cover to push rates. And a feedback loop has formed: the higher the quotes, the more urgently shippers grab space, which pushes quotes higher still. Several sellers told Yicai they see no alternative but to pay.

Is capacity actually short?

Not in aggregate. UK forwarder Metro Global's post-holiday review, published October 14, counts just 34 blank sailings across the major east–west trades in weeks 42–46 — 5% of 713 scheduled voyages, with the trans-Pacific accounting for 32% of cancellations. Factories are back at full output and overall space is adequate. The crunch is structural: specific departures, specific expedited products.

What should shippers do?

Deadline cargo — Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas — should be booked now; sellers and analysts alike see no meaningful near-term relief. Flexible cargo can wait: standard spot is in a downtrend, and a two-week shift could save a double-digit percentage. And when requesting quotes, price expedited and standard services separately. On the same lane the spread is now close to 2x, so an expedited quote is not "the market."

Yufeng International Logistics operates US West and East Coast services with FCL and LCL options, expedited and standard, with pickup from every prefecture-level city in China — see our USA line page.

Sources: reported by Yicai, Metro Global and the Drewry World Container Index.